Target and touch totals are important, but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
Advertisement
Snap counts and depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are way more valuable than RB carries) are also important but generally will not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week but all the weeks of the season will be archived so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also note as the season progresses that I gave great thought in doing these stats weekly and not for the season. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats just smoothes everything out to a more meaningless middle. Remember, as our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
Running Back Touches
Derrick Henry can be ranked around where his ADP was. We’re just dealing with the model here mostly, so my opinion on his future value notwithstanding. I talked about that in my Week 4 Sunday wrap-up. You needed massive volume for him to pay off, and we’re getting it. This year, he’s finished eighth, 20th, second and second. So that averages to about No. 8. If he’s still great, which is debatable, that’s valuable.
Josh Jacobs has averaged about 11th this year, far better than the expectation of a Patriots-like approach. When a guy is this high, who cares about third-down routes. Yes, he’s a bell calf.
I traded Allen Robinson for Dameon Pierce after Week 2 in my home league and that’s the league all of us in this business want to win the most. So I want Pierce to do well. But the offense is going to hold him back. The Texans ran a pathetic 53 plays in Week 4. So Pierce is worse than his No. 5 ranking suggests.
Miles Sanders should be a Top 10 RB. Will even I — quite possibly the biggest fan of Sanders this past summer — have the guts to jet him all the way up there? Yes. It’s a weak field. Sanders is a poor man’s Saquon Barkley in a rich man’s offense — not THAT much worse than Barkley. He’s a league winner. Yeah, he can get hurt like everyone running through the NFL minefield.
Advertisement
Ezekiel Elliott is the clear No. 1 in Dallas and this is going to be a running/defense team. He will end up being a good pick. Don’t panic on Tony Pollard (40th). That’s about his floor. Pollard is a solid No. 3, or weaker No. 2 RB, depending on your mood.
There is no hint of a committee in San Francisco. I thought Jeff Wilson would lose the job. He’s been fine. It’s a misconception that Kyle Shanahan prefers a committee backfield. He just has not had someone who could survive a full workload. I expect Wilson to be Top 10 on this list most weeks. The Niners covered up the loss of Trent Williams remarkably well. Shockingly well.
The New England offense runs through the RBs with Mac Jones out, and both of these guys are good and the line is good. So both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are RB2s, though not quite their No. 12 and No. 13 ranking, respectively, in Week 4.
Rashaad Penny is so explosive he doesn’t need elite volume. In fact, how much volume can you have when you average 6.8+ yards per carry like he has in five of his past nine games. That’s by far the most in that period (Aaron Jones is the only other back with two). You have to start Penny every week he’s healthy, in every format.
Raheem Mostert (28.3%) just crushed Chase Edmonds (11.7%). Edmonds is almost totally TD dependent. If Mostert is on waivers, 30% of FAAB is reasonable and will get him.
Devin Singletary was RB27. The Bills run a lot of plays. Not many through the RB position though. Singletary’s gotten goal line and third down looks. I think he’s comfortably a RB2. The other Bills RBs are non-factors.
The cheaper one is the better buy between Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley. I suspect that will be Huntley. This is a bad offense that doesn’t run a lot of plays but that loves to run. The model says 40% for Allgeier if he was playing all remaining games without Cordarrelle Patterson (IR — eligible to return Week 9) in front of him, but it’s probably only four weeks out of the 10 that are left. So 40% of 40 is 16% of FAAB. Huntley is 40% of 36%, so 15% of FAAB is his ceiling. Put them on the same block.
Advertisement
Travis Etienne (35th) could be benched, though he’s just one spot below James Robinson in this exercise. I’d keep him at about RB30. Hopefully you have better options.
Leonard Fournette was getting run into the ground according to the Bucs coaches and needed more time on the sidelines. But the game was a blowout so I wouldn’t read too much into his Week 4 snaps/market share.
Two sleepers (along with model-suggested FAAB limits) are Justice Hill (15-30%) and Jonathan Williams, the only Washington RB who looked good (5%). Bidding on Hill means you don’t believe in J.K. Dobbins, which is reasonable, but remember Hill blew out his Achilles in 2020, too. So I advise caution, though I like the idea of rostering him.
Receiver Targets
There is just no passing volume in Atlanta and the coach who basically game plans like his name, right out of 1940, just laughs at fantasy. So while Kyle Pitts takes all the heat, I’d be very worried about Drake London, who still has a WR2 market perception. Sell that.
Pat Freiermuth is rock solid and the No. 1 TE in Week 4 in our stats.
Sell Marquise Brown (7th) given the Cardinals stink and DeAndre Hopkins is back after two more games.
The model bid on George Pickens (10th) if he’s available is 15-16% of FAAB. Not sure that gets him but I would stick to the model and not go higher.
Amari Cooper disappeared in Week 4, not even charting, but the Browns lost, which is good. The Browns need to feature Cooper. If he doesn’t chart again in Week 5, I’ll eat crow. But he’s still a Top 20 WR for me.
Christian McCaffrey finally had the receiving usage we expected. However, the Panthers offense seems hopeless. San Francisco awaits. McCaffrey is probably too big to fail.
JuJu Smith-Schuster was 34th and has ranked 34th, uncharted, and 40th the other three weeks, respectively. You get a Patrick Mahomes bump but it’s almost impossible to rank Smith-Schuster even in the Top 40. You can squint and maybe see him there. I’m struggling even there and he was drafted about WR25.
Advertisement
Jerry Jeudy is about WR40, too. Until further notice. Courtland Sutton is the Alpha on the Broncos.
Corey Davis was ranked 43rd and that’s about where he should be even off the big week in efficiency/scoring.
Ja’Marr Chase at No. 45 is inexcusable. Put him in the backfield if you have to. Sprint him in motion. Stack him. Do something.
The Bills got ultra physical with Mark Andrews. I thought the fear of Lamar Jackson running made him bracket proof. Jackson still doesn’t perform well when he needs to throw (12-for-31 on third and fourth downs with 10 first downs and a 4.8 YPA).
If you can figure out Colts TE, drop me a line. Mo Alie-Cox, a perennial tease, was hyper-efficient, but only 57th in our ranks (12th among TEs).
Alec Pierce isn’t running enough routes. He’s earned more. I think they’re coming. If you agree he’s earned them (5.0 yards per route last week), he’s worth a 5-10% bid.
Darren Waller (68th): The Allen Robinson of tight ends. I followed the money, right off the cliff.
Is Terry McLaurin benchable? He was 73rd in Week 4 and prior to that was 43rd, 64th, and uncharted, respectively. Yes, he is. Don’t cut him. But he needs a show-me week, especially with Carson Wentz cratering the last two weeks.
We assume rational coaching. Why pay Waller all-time money if you’re not going to use him? Ditto McLaurin. Why draft Kyle Pitts the highest we’ve seen at TE and then feature ham-and-egg RBs? Robinson is a little different because we knew he stunk last year but you figure the defending champs know better. They didn’t. I did at least say Robinson was probably washed after Week 1. But I don’t think the other three touts were process errors. But they were errors nonetheless. Predicting the future is hard, as Yogi Berra said.
(Top photo: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports)
ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57km9scG1gbHxzfJFrZmpoX2WBcLnAq6KerF2otaK%2BxGapnqifp8FuwNilnKtlkaG5qLHInqlmrqNisKK4xJtkoa2eqbmmxYytnKuqqWK6pLjArqmipl2jsqaw0maYZquYpMRuucRmrp6dm2Kur7CMpqarnV8%3D